radeye's odds

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Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2005 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
tomek 3464 234 $12,391.50 27.87 16.24 87.12 2.05 12.31 31.29 41.47
John Dethridge 3353 349 $8,979.96 29.12 13.13 76.43 6.85 19.00 25.52 25.06
Eryx 3287 465 $7,186.99 35.54 15.45 65.11 10.66 17.52 16.81 20.12
haha 3077 412 $3,399.75 48.21 13.22 39.38 11.57 12.96 8.95 5.90
ploh 2824 282 $865.99 40.70 2.99 8.45 4.14 2.99 1.11 0.20
Jan_Kuipers 2982 421 $2,121.52 51.23 11.10 24.66 9.24 7.68 4.88 2.86
kalinov 2472 483 $640.17 18.91 0.90 3.16 2.17 0.68 0.24 0.08
marian 2828 324 $995.80 39.82 3.57 10.83 5.22 3.70 1.54 0.38
gepa 2738 308 $744.33 34.13 1.95 6.16 3.32 2.08 0.65 0.11
mathijs 2744 463 $1,208.03 32.87 3.65 13.23 6.85 3.89 1.72 0.77
overwise 2652 475 $1,064.00 25.30 2.13 9.50 5.54 2.49 1.06 0.42
krijgertje 2676 488 $941.81 30.65 2.99 8.62 4.89 2.23 1.02 0.48
aneubeck 2512 240 $499.81 11.31 0.10 0.17 0.13 0.03 0.00 0.00
Im2Good 2671 485 $1,082.72 26.24 2.44 10.72 6.11 2.83 1.25 0.53
cyfra 2714 491 $1,241.14 30.69 3.40 12.97 6.93 3.65 1.62 0.78
dangelo 2395 283 $505.05 6.90 0.05 0.35 0.27 0.07 0.01 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
AdrianKuegel 2632 473 $987.19 24.26 1.90 8.65 5.14 2.24 0.92 0.35
misof 2730 420 $850.67 34.88 3.19 7.80 4.24 2.23 0.97 0.36
ante 2539 472 $758.27 22.29 1.29 4.10 2.67 0.95 0.35 0.12
monsoon 2415 248 $529.47 5.01 0.02 0.16 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.00
RalphFurmaniak 2408 283 $506.34 7.44 0.06 0.39 0.29 0.09 0.01 0.00
dvickrey 2284 306 $575.37 4.21 0.02 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.00 0.00
qixin99 2315 453 $669.34 9.55 0.20 1.63 1.25 0.29 0.07 0.01
kindloaf 1827 547 $574.79 2.86 0.02 0.20 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00