radeye's odds

 Round 1  |  Round 2  |  Round 3  |  Round 4  |  Semifinals

Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2005 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
tomek 3493 248 $14,517.37 100.00 17.58 11.95 93.76 1.25 9.04 29.35 54.12
John Dethridge 3307 348 $9,018.99 99.36 28.46 14.29 79.03 6.33 19.83 29.87 23.01
Eryx 3177 423 $5,701.93 96.06 36.51 15.25 58.48 10.47 19.17 16.37 12.47
haha 3014 461 $3,127.39 89.70 36.60 11.25 37.34 11.62 12.31 8.14 5.27
dgarthur 2795 352 $1,067.20 84.84 37.04 4.86 13.40 6.19 4.72 2.02 0.47
ploh 2754 341 $763.25 82.69 35.90 3.87 7.60 3.78 2.60 1.01 0.21
Jan_Kuipers 2859 403 $1,323.79 85.58 43.13 8.10 15.25 6.41 5.07 2.71 1.07
kalinov 2712 439 $839.28 73.89 27.77 3.56 8.95 4.63 2.70 1.21 0.41
marian 2769 370 $931.35 81.87 33.59 4.27 10.94 5.25 3.73 1.56 0.39
gepa 2680 347 $650.70 76.21 25.18 2.11 6.21 3.38 2.06 0.66 0.11
mathijs 2733 505 $1,136.74 72.54 23.67 3.82 13.33 6.63 3.91 1.90 0.90
ivan_metelsky 2647 292 $611.58 76.75 23.29 1.29 3.63 2.09 1.20 0.31 0.03
overwise 2713 378 $889.51 77.16 27.57 2.91 7.57 3.93 2.47 0.94 0.22
krijgertje 2633 347 $566.89 71.85 22.13 1.50 3.49 2.02 1.08 0.33 0.05
aneubeck 2512 262 $359.23 61.79 11.33 0.25 0.54 0.37 0.14 0.03 0.00
Im2Good 2653 563 $921.12 65.34 19.69 2.94 9.30 5.02 2.42 1.21 0.65
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
cyfra 2556 375 $566.59 62.92 15.44 0.88 2.61 1.62 0.74 0.21 0.03
dangelo 2349 290 $253.70 38.53 3.54 0.04 0.16 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.00
AdrianKuegel 2505 423 $545.89 56.77 12.27 0.72 2.74 1.76 0.72 0.21 0.04
misof 2584 403 $512.89 64.67 16.35 1.19 4.13 2.47 1.20 0.38 0.08
LunaticFringe 2485 403 $493.40 55.17 10.78 0.53 2.10 1.38 0.55 0.15 0.02
ante 2449 540 $541.11 51.14 10.30 0.82 3.55 2.31 0.82 0.30 0.11
HilbertRaum 2561 476 $651.71 60.68 15.10 1.35 4.65 2.79 1.24 0.47 0.14
monsoon 2404 276 $314.03 45.77 4.80 0.06 0.20 0.15 0.05 0.01 0.00
RalphFurmaniak 2393 311 $282.67 44.83 5.27 0.09 0.28 0.21 0.06 0.01 0.00
evd 2249 264 $192.78 24.34 1.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
po 2364 325 $393.16 41.51 4.51 0.07 0.24 0.18 0.05 0.01 0.00
marek.cygan 2120 597 $310.87 29.83 3.25 0.12 0.70 0.55 0.11 0.03 0.01
lovro 2447 428 $510.29 51.28 9.48 0.46 1.61 1.09 0.39 0.11 0.02
Wernie 2267 516 $400.11 37.24 4.86 0.19 0.99 0.74 0.19 0.05 0.01
asaveljevs 2219 306 $244.03 24.50 1.12 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
dvickrey 2236 315 $278.88 26.82 1.42 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
bjacoke001 2170 286 $218.13 18.20 0.51 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Savior 2367 483 $485.15 44.80 6.83 0.33 1.67 1.18 0.37 0.10 0.02
gladius 2234 476 $355.15 33.89 3.46 0.10 0.66 0.51 0.12 0.03 0.00
abi_k 2338 639 $525.55 44.23 7.16 0.60 3.39 2.33 0.68 0.26 0.12
Minsk 2109 324 $189.66 16.05 0.43 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
abiczo 2137 403 $190.93 23.18 1.27 0.01 0.12 0.10 0.02 0.00 0.00
qixin99 2214 445 $356.83 31.20 2.76 0.06 0.42 0.33 0.07 0.01 0.00
kupo 2106 337 $192.57 16.75 0.50 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
danlief 2107 369 $289.30 22.07 0.85 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
chogyonim 1952 317 $158.88 8.46 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oblok 2049 463 $314.13 22.81 1.23 0.01 0.11 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
ltank 1937 315 $175.66 7.66 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
aussie 2006 446 $277.99 19.18 0.79 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
belzebub 2024 575 $332.44 25.95 2.03 0.05 0.31 0.25 0.04 0.01 0.00
zalenski 2150 499 $354.15 31.48 2.84 0.07 0.29 0.23 0.04 0.01 0.00
herbert_duarte 1809 415 $281.71 7.92 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
dexy 1789 422 $230.39 7.59 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
kindloaf 1653 504 $197.96 6.98 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00