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radeye's odds |
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Semifinals | |
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Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2005 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability. The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only. |
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By radeye TopCoder Member |
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| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| tomek | 3512 | 236 | $14,815.69 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 17.26 | 11.08 | 93.26 | 1.25 | 8.00 | 26.83 | 57.18 |
| reid | 3184 | 338 | $5,335.89 | 99.82 | 98.14 | 41.96 | 14.42 | 57.57 | 9.85 | 19.36 | 18.39 | 9.98 |
| John Dethridge | 3267 | 364 | $6,983.34 | 99.83 | 98.46 | 39.24 | 17.18 | 65.46 | 8.32 | 17.95 | 22.54 | 16.64 |
| Eryx | 3092 | 406 | $3,541.60 | 98.64 | 92.77 | 43.05 | 13.15 | 40.03 | 10.61 | 12.81 | 10.44 | 6.16 |
| haha | 3009 | 501 | $2,722.38 | 94.85 | 82.02 | 30.79 | 8.18 | 31.55 | 10.96 | 9.15 | 6.61 | 4.83 |
| dgarthur | 2823 | 376 | $929.73 | 95.27 | 79.42 | 35.57 | 4.14 | 10.20 | 4.65 | 3.37 | 1.67 | 0.51 |
| ploh | 2878 | 324 | $998.54 | 98.21 | 88.49 | 47.06 | 5.75 | 10.48 | 4.34 | 3.74 | 1.90 | 0.50 |
| Jan_Kuipers | 2897 | 422 | $1,448.33 | 95.22 | 81.02 | 36.11 | 6.32 | 16.75 | 6.82 | 5.35 | 3.17 | 1.41 |
| kalinov | 2769 | 493 | $952.59 | 87.88 | 64.64 | 21.93 | 3.08 | 10.92 | 5.40 | 3.07 | 1.66 | 0.79 |
| marian | 2682 | 359 | $541.49 | 91.31 | 66.89 | 20.14 | 1.28 | 4.50 | 2.51 | 1.39 | 0.51 | 0.09 |
| antimatter | 2783 | 371 | $903.19 | 94.36 | 76.33 | 27.73 | 2.80 | 9.04 | 4.36 | 2.99 | 1.35 | 0.33 |
| gepa | 2619 | 371 | $450.53 | 87.44 | 58.24 | 14.83 | 0.77 | 2.97 | 1.78 | 0.85 | 0.28 | 0.05 |
| pparys | 2661 | 430 | $551.24 | 86.18 | 58.69 | 16.89 | 1.36 | 4.88 | 2.76 | 1.39 | 0.57 | 0.16 |
| mathijs | 2629 | 541 | $551.42 | 79.03 | 49.24 | 13.17 | 1.41 | 5.44 | 3.11 | 1.36 | 0.66 | 0.32 |
| m00tz | 2710 | 296 | $631.92 | 95.85 | 76.74 | 25.09 | 1.27 | 3.25 | 1.80 | 1.07 | 0.34 | 0.04 |
| ivan_metelsky | 2559 | 311 | $348.57 | 87.95 | 54.95 | 11.22 | 0.29 | 0.91 | 0.60 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| overwise | 2612 | 327 | $491.94 | 89.91 | 61.05 | 15.08 | 0.58 | 1.75 | 1.09 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| krijgertje | 2634 | 402 | $523.21 | 86.39 | 57.73 | 15.45 | 1.00 | 3.40 | 1.99 | 0.97 | 0.36 | 0.08 |
| grotmol | 2598 | 505 | $523.29 | 78.91 | 47.97 | 11.88 | 1.04 | 4.24 | 2.51 | 1.08 | 0.47 | 0.18 |
| aneubeck | 2512 | 286 | $307.38 | 86.64 | 49.56 | 7.53 | 0.12 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| benetin | 2547 | 532 | $469.80 | 74.73 | 42.20 | 9.35 | 0.77 | 3.56 | 2.20 | 0.85 | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| Im2Good | 2466 | 357 | $305.10 | 77.76 | 39.37 | 5.86 | 0.13 | 0.68 | 0.48 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Per | 2682 | 510 | $698.42 | 83.15 | 55.65 | 15.23 | 1.77 | 6.87 | 3.73 | 1.83 | 0.91 | 0.40 |
| cyfra | 2497 | 393 | $356.97 | 78.03 | 41.92 | 7.36 | 0.26 | 1.16 | 0.78 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| hauser | 2397 | 328 | $216.06 | 73.23 | 31.01 | 3.23 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| dangelo | 2322 | 312 | $162.37 | 65.94 | 21.76 | 1.49 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| AdrianKuegel | 2354 | 410 | $243.03 | 65.24 | 25.92 | 3.05 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| misof | 2422 | 377 | $237.08 | 72.78 | 33.41 | 4.50 | 0.10 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| LunaticFringe | 2411 | 404 | $261.08 | 70.51 | 31.81 | 4.42 | 0.11 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| ante | 2391 | 576 | $284.51 | 63.44 | 28.63 | 4.86 | 0.30 | 1.50 | 1.04 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| HilbertRaum | 2461 | 492 | $349.30 | 70.72 | 35.37 | 6.47 | 0.34 | 1.52 | 1.02 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| monsoon | 2345 | 316 | $218.19 | 68.34 | 24.48 | 1.87 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| RalphFurmaniak | 2338 | 304 | $182.61 | 68.21 | 23.53 | 1.62 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| nullspace | 2315 | 332 | $169.66 | 64.23 | 21.32 | 1.53 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| evd | 2227 | 285 | $110.62 | 54.57 | 11.49 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zis | 2270 | 335 | $142.87 | 58.95 | 16.91 | 0.99 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| PaulJefferys | 2292 | 197 | $134.85 | 68.79 | 14.32 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Olexiy | 2355 | 375 | $280.19 | 66.63 | 26.00 | 2.64 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| skanthak | 2406 | 367 | $316.66 | 71.86 | 31.78 | 3.76 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| kalmakka | 2350 | 359 | $245.88 | 66.82 | 25.45 | 2.33 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Tomy | 2265 | 314 | $141.48 | 58.92 | 15.94 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| dmks | 2246 | 349 | $136.21 | 55.91 | 15.23 | 0.83 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| po | 2329 | 386 | $239.49 | 63.70 | 23.46 | 2.17 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| marek.cygan | 2276 | 213 | $131.69 | 64.83 | 13.27 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrew_Lazarev | 2319 | 462 | $243.83 | 60.70 | 23.10 | 2.58 | 0.07 | 0.48 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| lovro | 2438 | 498 | $371.26 | 68.85 | 33.30 | 5.39 | 0.27 | 1.55 | 1.06 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| rem | 2286 | 263 | $177.54 | 63.61 | 16.55 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wernie | 2274 | 567 | $239.16 | 55.63 | 20.71 | 2.51 | 0.10 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| asaveljevs | 2129 | 302 | $124.28 | 41.42 | 5.96 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| dvickrey | 2156 | 287 | $81.92 | 44.71 | 6.88 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| szymcio | 2258 | 497 | $224.15 | 55.13 | 19.17 | 1.96 | 0.05 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Yi_Zhang | 2017 | 284 | $43.17 | 26.62 | 1.87 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| bjacoke001 | 2162 | 316 | $150.27 | 45.96 | 8.63 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Savior | 2280 | 493 | $267.26 | 56.97 | 21.16 | 2.30 | 0.06 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| liympanda | 2250 | 443 | $214.69 | 55.09 | 18.64 | 1.61 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| dmytro | 2046 | 310 | $57.91 | 31.59 | 3.63 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| gladius | 2113 | 420 | $132.03 | 42.32 | 9.74 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| zjq | 2086 | 426 | $93.90 | 39.93 | 8.70 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| abi_k | 2150 | 533 | $184.94 | 46.67 | 14.40 | 1.23 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Minsk | 2023 | 294 | $79.39 | 28.00 | 2.89 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| bugzpodder | 2024 | 354 | $121.46 | 31.70 | 4.56 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| qsort | 2078 | 642 | $183.79 | 42.91 | 13.02 | 1.21 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| abiczo | 2046 | 448 | $94.58 | 37.16 | 7.89 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| qixin99 | 2040 | 361 | $128.27 | 33.64 | 5.44 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| oldbig | 1855 | 469 | $100.84 | 23.50 | 2.90 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ardiankp | 1980 | 436 | $123.59 | 31.25 | 5.27 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| kupo | 2027 | 378 | $107.38 | 33.07 | 5.46 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| danlief | 1950 | 244 | $60.98 | 16.18 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| mickle | 1926 | 333 | $92.69 | 21.16 | 1.80 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Toivoa | 2054 | 419 | $172.79 | 37.00 | 7.59 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| chogyonim | 1883 | 314 | $74.07 | 17.73 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oblok | 1840 | 303 | $84.20 | 13.57 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ltank | 1839 | 280 | $80.50 | 11.69 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| bigbug | 1938 | 337 | $110.58 | 24.26 | 2.21 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| aussie | 1858 | 311 | $68.67 | 15.51 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| belzebub | 1884 | 415 | $109.98 | 24.19 | 2.64 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| denpoz | 1898 | 305 | $125.79 | 18.34 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tron3k | 1711 | 228 | $8.80 | 2.35 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| algostorm | 1887 | 326 | $126.87 | 18.96 | 1.22 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| zalenski | 1972 | 567 | $151.96 | 36.20 | 8.05 | 0.46 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| cheetah | 1909 | 414 | $154.27 | 27.87 | 3.32 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| koda | 1785 | 412 | $78.20 | 18.45 | 1.29 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Merlin[Kyiv] | 1701 | 293 | $21.46 | 6.35 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frodo_Baggins | 1807 | 507 | $144.16 | 24.61 | 2.96 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| mics | 1779 | 594 | $119.36 | 26.34 | 3.84 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| herbert_duarte | 1689 | 399 | $112.28 | 12.11 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| sephiroth79 | 1657 | 382 | $106.59 | 9.64 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vytenis | 1661 | 417 | $110.93 | 11.73 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| dexy | 1710 | 331 | $56.92 | 9.07 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ben.hwang | 1750 | 374 | $117.70 | 13.97 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| mafattah | 1612 | 313 | $106.76 | 6.87 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| kindloaf | 1604 | 402 | $34.55 | 11.34 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rrenaud | 1611 | 390 | $64.24 | 11.02 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| _efer_ | 1644 | 427 | $122.30 | 14.74 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| sinaddcos | 1621 | 420 | $118.48 | 13.15 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Swetko | 1720 | 499 | $141.65 | 22.91 | 1.95 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| Sika | 1523 | 365 | $52.31 | 6.23 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| nhzp339 | 1555 | 414 | $110.06 | 9.79 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| jakubr | 1628 | 585 | $136.23 | 21.30 | 1.95 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| president | 1293 | 573 | $101.69 | 7.95 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |