2003 TopCoder Open sponsord by Intel®

radeye's odds

 Round 1 |  Round 2 |  Round 3 |  Round 4 |  Semifinals |  Finals

Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2003 TopCoder Open sponsored by Intel® based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
SnapDragon 3431 301 $27 034.92 99.34 84.85 3.21 11.33 26.01 44.30
tomek 3311 347 $17 782.01 96.62 72.74 7.01 15.87 24.47 25.39
reid 3096 360 $7 116.64 87.95 44.08 10.91 14.05 11.68 7.44
ZorbaTHut 2916 393 $3 201.80 73.20 24.29 9.94 7.41 4.58 2.36
NGBronson 2969 357 $3 867.54 79.61 28.74 10.32 9.34 6.09 2.99
Yarin 3058 401 $5 707.63 83.19 35.23 10.00 10.81 8.57 5.86
bladerunner 2826 297 $1 720.08 69.51 12.46 5.43 4.38 2.09 0.56
ChristopherH 2751 334 $1 229.47 58.96 7.03 3.36 2.27 1.08 0.32
radeye 2783 353 $1 350.26 62.01 7.00 3.03 2.25 1.26 0.47
dmwright 2820 367 $1 539.05 65.38 7.58 2.95 2.39 1.54 0.69
bstanescu 2718 279 $904.59 55.96 2.70 1.26 0.92 0.42 0.10
venco 2761 296 $1 085.07 61.34 4.25 1.87 1.45 0.73 0.20
WishingBone 2914 376 $2 394.16 73.86 13.77 4.75 4.34 3.09 1.59
ambrose 2586 332 $663.76 39.25 2.15 1.35 0.57 0.19 0.04
DjinnKahn 2544 257 $510.93 30.38 0.92 0.63 0.23 0.05 0.01
bigg_nate 2670 457 $1 118.42 49.48 6.67 3.73 1.71 0.85 0.38
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
snewman 3062 564 $5 695.05 75.61 29.84 9.51 7.18 6.16 6.99
tjq 2685 310 $929.30 51.15 4.95 2.82 1.50 0.52 0.11
evd 2504 426 $635.74 34.12 2.71 1.84 0.60 0.21 0.06
antimatter 2490 290 $464.27 25.95 0.91 0.66 0.21 0.04 0.00
Xu Chuan 2398 351 $409.20 21.22 0.69 0.53 0.13 0.03 0.00
LunaticFringe 2298 652 $584.44 27.87 2.54 1.85 0.40 0.18 0.11
Oblok 2273 405 $344.65 15.79 0.39 0.32 0.06 0.01 0.00
schveiguy 2351 270 $294.21 11.57 0.13 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.00
adic 2312 324 $310.26 13.00 0.19 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00
Logan 2165 371 $260.60 8.35 0.08 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00
Jan_Kuipers 2300 403 $362.10 17.35 0.43 0.34 0.07 0.02 0.00
Wasteland 2282 356 $313.53 13.29 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.01 0.00
Abednego 2286 304 $277.22 9.99 0.09 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00
milhouse 2316 372 $349.20 16.47 0.31 0.24 0.05 0.01 0.00
Modulator 2098 357 $228.22 5.27 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
mathijs 2278 467 $389.69 19.45 0.57 0.44 0.09 0.03 0.01
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
jshute 2215 300 $238.59 6.30 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
madking 2176 269 $208.48 3.33 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
cvoinescu 2499 301 $473.84 27.72 0.59 0.40 0.15 0.04 0.01
along 2293 416 $361.66 17.65 0.30 0.23 0.05 0.01 0.00
space 2103 296 $202.66 2.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Klinck 2297 390 $345.25 16.37 0.20 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.00
mathgodleo 2082 255 $186.23 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Parchandri 2038 395 $228.05 5.27 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
cnettel 2179 367 $263.04 8.70 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
kyky 2155 314 $224.32 4.91 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
dpecora 2042 271 $185.71 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Googly 1976 293 $184.23 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
jasonw 2080 345 $217.46 4.23 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
abiczo 2059 419 $245.24 6.96 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
DrewHudson 2093 361 $228.38 5.32 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
achurch 2150 391 $264.19 8.83 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
futo 2046 573 $315.02 13.36 0.18 0.15 0.02 0.01 0.00
hamster 2221 401 $303.65 12.66 0.06 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00