2003 TopCoder Open sponsord by Intel®

radeye's odds

 Round 1 |  Round 2 |  Round 3 |  Round 4 |  Semifinals |  Finals

Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2003 TopCoder Open sponsored by Intel® based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
SnapDragon 3464 316 $31 106.02 100.00 99.37 87.09 2.09 8.24 22.99 53.77
tomek 3255 356 $15 754.91 99.88 94.98 68.22 6.78 15.29 24.95 21.20
reid 3048 374 $6 719.59 99.05 84.06 42.87 10.58 13.76 11.82 6.71
ZorbaTHut 2860 439 $2 816.94 94.23 63.53 20.73 8.48 6.09 4.04 2.11
NGBronson 2968 388 $4 503.74 98.01 76.92 31.43 10.02 9.99 7.53 3.89
Yarin 2938 311 $3 648.17 99.30 80.55 27.91 8.67 10.17 6.73 2.34
bladerunner 2832 324 $2 111.00 97.92 68.50 15.96 6.21 5.62 3.19 0.93
ChristopherH 2786 357 $1 632.05 95.78 60.70 10.66 4.38 3.52 2.08 0.68
radeye 2847 258 $1 773.94 99.53 75.51 10.04 3.24 3.84 2.36 0.60
dmwright 2825 335 $1 604.26 97.45 66.70 7.69 2.58 2.57 1.82 0.73
bstanescu 2746 295 $1 072.96 97.41 59.24 3.96 1.56 1.38 0.79 0.23
venco 2741 318 $1 093.49 96.34 57.28 4.54 1.87 1.53 0.87 0.26
WishingBone 2810 379 $1 647.98 95.45 62.04 9.08 3.45 2.87 1.94 0.82
ambrose 2561 365 $601.72 85.86 33.24 2.14 1.27 0.59 0.24 0.05
malpt 2677 391 $1 000.35 90.32 46.23 5.61 2.84 1.66 0.84 0.27
DjinnKahn 2556 292 $555.91 90.67 32.14 1.68 1.04 0.48 0.14 0.02
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
bigg_nate 2672 497 $1 154.00 84.47 42.69 7.31 3.77 1.91 1.10 0.53
snewman 2949 579 $3 915.54 91.14 62.85 22.27 7.87 5.49 4.64 4.27
dary 2642 454 $979.28 85.17 40.75 6.23 3.38 1.68 0.84 0.32
tjq 2608 275 $686.12 94.37 39.42 2.85 1.67 0.88 0.26 0.04
doeth 2407 423 $386.04 71.35 19.14 1.21 0.85 0.26 0.08 0.02
obfuscator 2379 304 $291.71 75.48 13.09 0.34 0.25 0.07 0.01 0.00
evd 2439 440 $440.30 73.07 21.97 1.65 1.11 0.37 0.13 0.03
antimatter 2548 324 $563.84 87.85 31.42 2.05 1.27 0.57 0.18 0.03
Xu Chuan 2355 394 $308.93 68.16 14.56 0.57 0.42 0.12 0.03 0.01
legakis 2243 201 $154.02 64.14 1.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
zoidal 2306 324 $234.99 66.34 8.91 0.16 0.12 0.03 0.01 0.00
LunaticFringe 2285 642 $364.08 57.17 15.66 1.41 0.99 0.24 0.12 0.06
Oblok 2175 433 $194.18 50.51 6.46 0.14 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.00
schveiguy 2329 292 $238.79 70.75 8.95 0.12 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.00
adic 2345 384 $293.19 67.67 13.58 0.42 0.31 0.09 0.02 0.00
Maris 2199 257 $150.67 54.55 2.10 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
Logan 2158 406 $177.34 48.86 5.14 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00
Jan_Kuipers 2286 452 $270.11 60.20 11.95 0.42 0.32 0.08 0.02 0.01
vorthys 1987 437 $129.52 33.75 2.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasteland 2263 389 $228.95 59.51 8.89 0.17 0.13 0.03 0.01 0.00
Abednego 2283 334 $221.51 63.33 8.01 0.10 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00
haha 2335 344 $265.25 68.53 11.51 0.21 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.00
eldering 2294 385 $248.63 62.72 10.42 0.20 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.00
gilbert 2144 235 $128.09 45.67 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
milhouse 2304 440 $277.31 62.04 12.63 0.37 0.27 0.07 0.02 0.01
Modulator 2074 226 $110.77 33.69 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
mathijs 2282 532 $296.02 58.40 13.60 0.59 0.42 0.11 0.04 0.02
Ryan 2058 373 $133.49 38.20 2.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
halflife 2093 270 $121.40 38.83 0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
jshute 2124 299 $135.40 43.92 1.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
jonmac 2227 570 $269.25 54.02 11.80 0.48 0.35 0.08 0.04 0.01
madking 2096 230 $115.79 37.48 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
cvoinescu 2409 362 $341.93 74.63 17.76 0.36 0.25 0.09 0.03 0.01
along 2208 443 $212.31 53.47 7.99 0.11 0.09 0.02 0.01 0.00
skanthak 2053 421 $142.91 39.05 2.85 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
wleite 2037 320 $117.85 33.89 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
gepa 2143 584 $221.93 48.17 8.82 0.24 0.18 0.04 0.02 0.01
space 2005 246 $101.44 25.22 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
hgliebe 2007 416 $129.64 34.72 1.98 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Klinck 2142 284 $137.44 46.11 1.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
mathgodleo 2057 273 $114.06 34.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ColinMacLeod 2157 453 $189.38 48.87 6.33 0.06 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Yi_Zhang 2064 256 $112.88 34.01 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Parchandri 1956 472 $129.14 32.46 2.14 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
jonderry 2076 241 $113.11 34.90 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
cnettel 2136 394 $163.85 46.58 4.17 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
kyky 2107 355 $143.32 42.96 2.52 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ragnabot 2029 269 $108.26 30.05 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
Larry 2033 294 $112.72 32.10 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
dpecora 1954 220 $91.71 16.53 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Googly 1985 292 $104.34 26.35 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
pzhao 2145 452 $183.60 47.82 5.92 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
jasonw 2028 359 $123.12 34.60 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
turuthok 2011 241 $101.75 25.59 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
PAKETA 1919 324 $99.49 21.92 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
abiczo 1942 389 $111.90 27.86 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
DrewHudson 2063 396 $139.91 39.35 2.54 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
PurpleBob 1884 318 $94.89 18.43 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
achurch 2028 390 $129.41 35.79 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
futo 1990 402 $123.18 32.69 1.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
chogyonim 1878 471 $114.41 26.70 1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
kyotov 2016 459 $141.00 36.85 2.88 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
shuvovse 1902 349 $100.54 22.11 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
assembler 1911 273 $92.85 17.21 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
dokon 1858 314 $91.98 16.04 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
sliu 1806 434 $99.94 20.03 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
sandeepgupta 1854 405 $101.77 21.72 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
jfreyss 1961 410 $118.76 30.48 1.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
router 1875 381 $101.24 21.89 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Minsk 1967 532 $143.61 35.09 3.28 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
koehrsen 1958 378 $112.76 28.70 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
UFP2161 1794 390 $93.95 16.71 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AdamSelene 1791 406 $95.35 17.50 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
hamster 2123 493 $185.05 46.21 6.19 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
toast 1648 327 $80.62 5.56 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
kats 1831 419 $100.86 20.88 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vaduz 1809 378 $94.05 16.94 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
emmpee 1731 470 $96.59 17.45 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MisterZimbu 1686 328 $82.16 7.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
cbaray 1757 463 $98.26 18.56 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
(Lx.xx)(Lx.xx) 1714 355 $85.37 9.95 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ag98 1677 376 $84.94 9.49 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
huntergt 1441 381 $77.82 2.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
dplass 1397 536 $83.11 7.43 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00