2004 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge


radeye's odds

 Round 1  |  Round 2  |  Round 3  |  Round 4  |  Semifinals

Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2004 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
tomek 3472 327 $16 820.32 29.72 20.24 87.58 1.76 6.91 20.12 58.79
reid 3061 383 $5 015.44 36.18 10.07 55.63 11.27 16.74 17.42 10.21
John Dethridge 3114 347 $5 655.28 43.00 14.05 57.56 8.57 16.39 20.75 11.84
ZorbaTHut 3020 236 $2 946.92 60.51 13.23 39.19 7.08 14.54 13.56 4.01
bladerunner 2861 255 $1 216.50 53.18 5.34 22.12 7.32 8.70 5.02 1.08
bstanescu 2935 554 $2 520.59 41.40 11.72 29.12 9.35 7.40 6.60 5.78
Eryx 2782 302 $354.70 41.50 3.78 6.65 2.60 2.37 1.32 0.36
Jan_Kuipers 2604 255 $144.69 27.13 0.61 4.01 2.22 1.35 0.40 0.04
dary 2537 302 $93.82 21.96 0.53 2.63 1.53 0.81 0.26 0.03
tjq 2454 349 $82.76 17.18 0.40 2.43 1.54 0.66 0.20 0.03
aneubeck 2596 355 $324.54 27.38 1.26 8.06 4.40 2.49 0.97 0.20
AdrianKuegel 2573 381 $126.52 22.67 1.23 2.96 1.61 0.87 0.38 0.10
lars 2747 501 $880.95 35.36 5.55 13.67 5.77 3.77 2.60 1.52
antimatter 2714 606 $1 770.03 25.78 4.37 27.46 12.73 6.74 4.69 3.29
grotmol 2614 582 $997.92 26.10 3.34 17.77 8.99 4.41 2.82 1.55
haha 2617 517 $777.79 27.63 2.97 14.85 7.51 3.96 2.35 1.03
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
Ryan 2482 310 $93.75 17.67 0.31 2.85 1.81 0.80 0.21 0.03
Ruberik 2407 397 $40.72 13.12 0.37 1.16 0.76 0.29 0.09 0.02
ploh 2274 282 $1.33 3.52 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
skanthak 2245 338 $20.26 6.54 0.04 0.76 0.59 0.15 0.02 0.00
petko 2133 299 $1.85 2.54 0.00 0.08 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00
dark_lord 2055 276 $0.38 1.09 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
kalmakka 2112 438 $30.49 6.14 0.05 1.16 0.93 0.18 0.04 0.00
RalphFurmaniak 2279 542 $82.46 12.71 0.54 2.24 1.54 0.45 0.18 0.07