2004 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge


radeye's odds

 Round 1  |  Round 2  |  Round 3  |  Round 4  |  Semifinals

Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2004 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
tomek 3429 340 $15 393.69 99.89 23.00 14.01 87.76 3.10 9.97 23.36 51.32
reid 3041 414 $3 913.39 94.65 39.71 11.30 45.26 11.66 13.45 11.86 8.30
John Dethridge 3187 385 $7 189.88 98.23 36.69 14.90 64.36 9.08 16.21 21.29 17.77
ZorbaTHut 3089 245 $4 212.12 99.77 57.57 17.08 49.49 7.68 17.09 17.52 7.19
mathijs 2906 415 $1 948.33 90.08 39.42 7.73 28.34 10.12 8.71 6.12 3.39
bladerunner 2893 266 $944.50 97.25 56.78 7.13 15.95 5.17 6.07 3.62 1.09
dgarthur 2831 313 $639.62 92.70 46.83 5.29 11.25 4.23 4.00 2.25 0.77
bstanescu 2943 603 $2 723.10 82.91 28.97 8.27 31.70 11.47 7.47 6.22 6.54
Eryx 2726 326 $419.10 85.97 33.52 2.43 8.97 4.19 3.05 1.38 0.36
Jan_Kuipers 2578 272 $65.10 77.23 18.63 0.42 1.84 1.06 0.59 0.17 0.02
dary 2553 330 $93.65 70.69 16.97 0.55 2.60 1.56 0.75 0.24 0.04
tjq 2519 436 $152.68 63.12 14.32 0.78 3.85 2.34 0.98 0.39 0.12
aneubeck 2513 335 $58.56 66.15 13.14 0.35 1.69 1.07 0.46 0.14 0.03
AdrianKuegel 2459 317 $25.70 60.60 9.21 0.16 0.81 0.55 0.21 0.05 0.01
lars 2655 491 $454.74 71.83 21.12 2.37 8.64 4.45 2.30 1.25 0.65
po 2384 209 $1.90 51.85 3.52 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
m00tz 2493 356 $63.82 63.16 12.54 0.36 1.83 1.16 0.49 0.15 0.03
dangelo 2485 320 $42.91 63.61 11.64 0.23 1.30 0.85 0.35 0.09 0.01
ante 2371 394 $34.26 49.65 7.24 0.15 1.09 0.76 0.25 0.07 0.01
gepa 2324 367 $15.80 44.50 5.06 0.06 0.55 0.40 0.11 0.03 0.00
antimatter 2676 644 $907.18 68.21 17.95 3.08 14.25 7.11 3.21 2.16 1.77
grotmol 2535 457 $191.79 63.86 14.72 0.96 4.57 2.70 1.18 0.50 0.18
haha 2536 441 $170.08 64.45 14.89 0.90 4.12 2.44 1.08 0.44 0.15
Abednego 2464 513 $157.12 57.03 11.73 0.77 3.78 2.37 0.87 0.38 0.16
Ryan 2366 291 $6.65 48.88 4.58 0.03 0.24 0.18 0.05 0.01 0.00
Ruberik 2246 368 $6.07 36.28 2.86 0.02 0.22 0.17 0.04 0.01 0.00
overwise 2363 469 $57.03 49.05 7.64 0.27 1.65 1.14 0.36 0.12 0.04
ploh 2353 277 $4.64 46.95 3.82 0.02 0.17 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00
kalinov 2197 388 $5.47 32.26 2.25 0.02 0.21 0.17 0.03 0.01 0.00
eldering 2152 279 $0.32 21.34 0.53 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
mickle 2204 379 $5.21 32.56 2.19 0.02 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.01 0.00
Per 2347 445 $43.70 47.53 6.54 0.18 1.34 0.94 0.28 0.09 0.02
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
skanthak 2194 353 $3.09 30.36 1.66 0.01 0.12 0.10 0.02 0.00 0.00
StefanPochmann 2035 393 $1.09 19.28 0.64 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
qsort 2096 331 $0.57 19.98 0.55 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
petko 2091 317 $0.38 18.55 0.43 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
robymus 2101 344 $0.83 21.26 0.67 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
jasonw 2034 305 $0.13 13.28 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Larry 2182 454 $12.14 33.46 2.77 0.04 0.44 0.34 0.07 0.02 0.00
Fluff 1946 323 $0.05 9.29 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
dark_lord 1979 251 $0.01 6.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
kalmakka 2095 473 $7.04 27.57 1.82 0.02 0.27 0.22 0.04 0.01 0.00
jburnim 1933 370 $0.19 11.60 0.18 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
RalphFurmaniak 2147 525 $18.09 33.10 3.06 0.07 0.61 0.48 0.10 0.03 0.01
lovro 1944 417 $0.54 14.99 0.37 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
szymcio 1910 367 $0.10 10.27 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
userundefined 1662 355 $0.00 2.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
charleston 2011 558 $7.44 25.56 1.73 0.03 0.27 0.22 0.03 0.01 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
bsauerwine 1624 388 $0.00 2.69 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
connect4 1589 566 $0.22 8.15 0.13 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00