2004 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge


radeye's odds

 Round 1  |  Round 2  |  Round 3  |  Round 4  |  Semifinals

Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2004 TopCoder Collegiate Challenge based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
tomek 3547 228 $19,732.72 100.00 100.00 11.54 8.83 97.08 0.63 4.78 21.17 70.49
reid 3179 290 $5,908.54 99.99 99.75 39.72 15.95 69.12 9.63 23.04 26.98 9.46
John Dethridge 3156 411 $5,620.26 99.61 97.16 36.33 15.10 61.90 12.72 18.28 19.31 11.59
ZorbaTHut 3080 265 $3,428.01 99.99 99.65 55.31 17.85 51.60 11.31 20.27 16.35 3.68
mathijs 2843 429 $1,187.53 96.64 84.78 36.36 6.71 22.55 10.39 6.75 4.02 1.39
bladerunner 2871 284 $578.61 99.77 96.36 58.68 7.87 12.70 5.50 4.64 2.23 0.33
dgarthur 2835 340 $492.16 98.85 91.34 50.73 7.05 10.44 4.78 3.50 1.78 0.39
bstanescu 2793 535 $1,008.20 91.57 73.21 27.84 5.55 17.72 8.69 4.55 2.93 1.56
Eryx 2768 344 $517.36 98.01 87.17 38.14 4.10 12.32 6.21 4.05 1.76 0.29
Jan_Kuipers 2577 297 $79.29 95.90 74.89 20.02 0.65 2.54 1.64 0.71 0.17 0.01
dary 2598 347 $139.83 93.98 72.01 21.28 1.09 4.19 2.64 1.16 0.35 0.04
tjq 2574 453 $191.55 87.32 60.52 16.54 1.34 5.11 3.20 1.27 0.51 0.12
aneubeck 2499 371 $51.53 88.28 58.26 12.80 0.48 1.69 1.17 0.40 0.11 0.01
AdrianKuegel 2447 348 $21.71 86.81 53.29 9.43 0.23 0.76 0.56 0.16 0.04 0.00
lars 2538 442 $105.56 86.17 57.60 14.65 0.99 2.98 1.94 0.72 0.27 0.06
Klinck 2505 365 $46.56 88.97 59.46 12.92 0.48 1.51 1.05 0.36 0.10 0.01
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
evd 2455 314 $18.70 89.63 56.91 9.64 0.18 0.67 0.50 0.15 0.03 0.00
po 2422 210 $2.65 95.59 61.03 6.02 0.02 0.10 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00
m00tz 2441 377 $37.96 84.55 50.65 9.27 0.27 1.29 0.93 0.29 0.07 0.01
dangelo 2445 338 $27.77 87.38 53.72 9.20 0.20 0.98 0.71 0.22 0.05 0.00
ante 2372 433 $34.48 76.63 40.07 6.51 0.21 1.17 0.86 0.24 0.06 0.01
gepa 2315 404 $14.92 73.81 34.52 4.44 0.09 0.55 0.43 0.10 0.02 0.00
Mike Mirzayanov 2398 431 $39.98 78.55 43.00 7.42 0.27 1.34 0.97 0.28 0.08 0.01
antimatter 2533 597 $257.85 78.76 49.07 11.84 1.39 5.88 3.66 1.27 0.65 0.30
grotmol 2511 498 $137.93 81.93 51.61 12.21 0.97 3.72 2.42 0.85 0.35 0.10
Oblok 2169 284 $0.22 65.17 17.44 0.59 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
haha 2504 474 $109.30 82.73 52.14 12.25 0.85 3.06 2.02 0.71 0.27 0.07
jonderry 2175 250 $0.07 67.90 16.95 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
jms137 2376 383 $16.67 79.73 42.26 6.22 0.14 0.60 0.46 0.12 0.03 0.00
Abednego 2368 512 $49.54 72.83 37.57 6.75 0.35 1.54 1.11 0.30 0.10 0.02
Ryan 2288 259 $0.82 81.15 33.38 1.87 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ruberik 2217 400 $4.18 65.44 24.33 2.13 0.02 0.17 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
overwise 2333 516 $41.84 70.35 34.35 5.62 0.26 1.34 0.99 0.25 0.08 0.02
ploh 2302 282 $1.87 80.58 35.24 2.46 0.01 0.08 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00
kalinov 2059 282 $0.04 50.07 7.89 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
monsoon 2286 377 $7.65 72.76 31.66 3.22 0.04 0.30 0.24 0.05 0.01 0.00
cnettel 2163 346 $1.07 61.89 18.44 0.93 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
eldering 2103 286 $0.09 56.16 11.20 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
mickle 2091 313 $0.17 54.14 11.31 0.29 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tomy 1990 261 $0.00 39.64 3.62 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Per 2347 507 $49.40 71.62 35.80 5.69 0.27 1.58 1.16 0.30 0.10 0.02
skanthak 2170 385 $2.45 61.45 19.80 1.27 0.01 0.10 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Minsk 2090 413 $1.50 53.04 14.14 0.75 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00
StefanPochmann 2031 432 $1.03 47.45 11.00 0.51 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
pzhao 2024 364 $0.24 46.21 8.71 0.24 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
qsort 2087 365 $0.58 53.13 12.67 0.48 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
ColinMacLeod 2124 443 $3.38 55.89 17.13 1.19 0.01 0.14 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.00
Yi_Zhang 1959 364 $0.09 39.21 5.68 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
petko 2060 345 $0.24 50.17 10.24 0.29 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
robymus 2029 351 $0.18 46.67 8.58 0.21 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kavan 2147 333 $0.62 60.50 16.61 0.69 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alexandre 2050 322 $0.11 48.91 8.82 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
jasonw 1995 327 $0.05 42.29 6.07 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Larry 2030 332 $0.10 46.58 8.01 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ragnabot 1911 340 $0.01 33.20 3.41 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fluff 1901 346 $0.02 32.39 3.28 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
WhiteShadow 1775 358 $0.00 21.37 1.22 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
dark_lord 1921 244 $0.00 28.72 1.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
SteveStern 1826 426 $0.06 29.17 3.27 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Running Wild 1810 332 $0.00 22.66 1.26 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
kalmakka 1996 487 $1.41 44.86 10.54 0.56 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
jburnim 1876 392 $0.05 32.01 3.73 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
fiasco 1759 236 $0.00 10.40 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
UltraMilo 2056 432 $1.07 49.79 12.42 0.63 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
RalphFurmaniak 2013 503 $1.90 46.40 11.71 0.71 0.01 0.08 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00
freestyler 1967 370 $0.08 40.19 6.18 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
agh 1959 336 $0.03 38.34 4.85 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
pparys 2126 642 $18.68 54.18 19.73 2.40 0.11 0.61 0.48 0.09 0.03 0.01
Henry 1794 262 $0.00 15.72 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
dmks 1843 322 $0.00 25.09 1.56 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
hauser 1996 424 $0.29 44.11 8.99 0.33 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
viktoras 1721 399 $0.00 19.81 1.19 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
indigo9 1695 369 $0.00 16.19 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Revenger 1627 358 $0.00 11.39 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ValD 1707 291 $0.00 11.40 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FRaiser 1626 277 $0.00 6.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
lovro 1812 381 $0.01 25.81 2.12 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
blackbeltcoder4 1651 322 $0.00 10.31 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
marian 2062 462 $1.04 50.29 13.46 0.80 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Terrax 1782 389 $0.00 23.79 1.79 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
saraedum2 1837 336 $0.00 25.46 1.71 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
szymcio 1864 410 $0.02 31.69 3.82 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
acki2003 1625 320 $0.00 8.82 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
userundefined 1577 342 $0.00 7.96 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
gevak 1627 219 $0.00 2.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dumitru 1722 349 $0.00 16.70 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EtherMage 1753 530 $0.10 28.14 3.70 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
db 1697 406 $0.00 18.57 1.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jasko 1628 190 $0.00 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
belzebub 1686 243 $0.00 6.43 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
charleston 1804 455 $0.02 28.69 3.36 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
entity 1536 322 $0.00 5.27 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
bsauerwine 1508 340 $0.00 5.30 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
zhliu 1619 584 $0.06 22.48 2.39 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wronkyn 1621 430 $0.00 15.37 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
HappyMutant 1505 377 $0.00 7.09 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Online 4 Semifinals Wildcard WC Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
mafattah 1532 413 $0.00 10.07 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
psangeljg 1586 384 $0.00 10.89 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Spike 1407 479 $0.00 8.65 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
connect4 1441 539 $0.00 12.52 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00