RODEO II: SUB-SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING

CLOSING THE GAP ON SUB-SEASONAL
CLIMATE FORECASTING

Welcome to the Forecasting Rodeo 2 Challenge Series!


We are excited to be working with the US Bureau of Reclamation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on this Rodeo II Challenge series! This series will have more than $800,000 in prize money available over the next year.

Why This Matters

Water managers need more skillful information on weather and climate conditions in order to help efficiently utilize water resources to reduce the impact of hydrologic regimes. Examples of hydrologic regimes include the onset of drought or wet weather extremes from high levels of precipitation. Lacking skillful sub-seasonal information limits water managers’ ability to prepare for shifts in hydrologic regimes and can pose major threats to their ability to manage the valuable resource.

The challenge of sub-seasonal forecasting is that it encompasses the time frame where initial state information (e.g., coupled land-atmosphere processes) becomes less important, and slowly varying long term states (e.g., sea surface temperatures, soil moisture, snow pack) become more important to prediction skill. Additionally, this information is needed 15 days to 45 days ahead of time, or even longer.

The Rodeo II Challenge series will create algorithms to enhance sub-seasonal forecasting, reducing risks to our water systems, and helping water managers efficiently manage hydrological regimes.


Kick Off Video

We kicked off the Rodeo 2 Challenge Series on July 19th. Join Nick, Dan, and the Reclamation Team as they provide more insight about why they are launching this series, what to expect, and more!

Hind Cast Challenge Results

The Hand Cast Challenge wrapped up on August 25th! These four marathon matches were the initial part of our Rodeo II project were participants trained weather prediction models on historical data. Thanks to all who participated, and congratulations to all of our winners!

Precipitation 3-4 Weeks

RankHandleCountryScore
1number13Nepal31.60893
2thothlingChina31.10106
3gardn999USA31.0761
4AliGebilyEgypt31.05248
5now_you_seeRussia30.96471

Temperature 3-4 Weeks

RankHandleCountryScore
1rekcahdRussia80.14055
2gardn999USA80.10171
3liuliquanChina80.048
4wleiteBrazil79.90178
5mkageniusIndia79.89353

Precipitation 5-6 Weeks

RankHandleCountryScore
1gardn999USA32.53334
2now_you_seeRussia32.49559
3rekcahdRussia32.44642
4AliGebilyEgypt32.44395
5touristBelarus32.43959

Temperature 5-6 Weeks

RankHandleCountryScore
1liuliquanChina80.74165
2mkageniusIndia80.39163
3gardn999USA80.26328
4rekcahdRussia80.24982
5touristBelarus80.11562

Upcoming Challenges and Prizes

We still have $720,000 of prizes to give away, and will be doing so over the next year in our data science sprints! Beginning on September 30th we will be running a new sprint every two weeks, for a total of 26 sprints.


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Sprints Schedule

Below is the full sprint schedule. To register for the current active sprint, search “Rodeo” on our Open for Registration page:

StartEnd
Sprint 110/01/201910/14/2019
Sprint 210/15/201910/28/2019
Sprint 310/29/201911/11/2019
Sprint 411/12/201911/25/2019
Sprint 511/26/201912/09/2019
Sprint 612/10/201912/23/2019
Sprint 712/24/201901/06/2020
Sprint 801/07/202001/20/2020
Sprint 901/21/202002/03/2020
Sprint 1002/04/202002/17/2020
Sprint 1102/18/202003/03/2020
Sprint 1203/04/202003/17/2020
Sprint 1303/18/202003/31/2020
Sprint 1404/01/202004/14/2020
Sprint 1504/15/202004/28/2020
Sprint 1604/29/202005/12/2020
Sprint 1705/13/202005/26/2020
Sprint 1805/27/202006/09/2020
Sprint 1906/10/202006/23/2020
Sprint 2006/24/202007/07/2020
Sprint 2107/08/202007/21/2020
Sprint 2207/22/202008/04/2020
Sprint 2308/05/202008/18/2020
Sprint 2408/19/202009/01/2020
Sprint 2509/02/202009/15/2020
Sprint 2609/16/202009/29/2020

Frequently Asked Questions

Still have some questions about how to continue with these challenges? No problem, many others probably had the same question as you do.

What is Reclamation?

Learn more about them here.

Where can I find the first Rodeo challenge?

Go here to see that challenge.