radeye's odds

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Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2004 TopCoder Open based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
tomek 3373 332 $9,697.76 31.11 12.67 76.66 6.17 15.39 24.12 30.98
SnapDragon 3302 345 $6,903.13 43.31 16.04 60.14 7.22 14.89 18.76 19.26
snewman 3258 325 $5,690.82 50.98 17.50 52.36 7.34 14.21 16.54 14.27
reid 3284 402 $6,444.30 42.90 16.29 56.86 8.63 13.87 16.01 18.34
John Dethridge 3109 475 $3,709.96 40.08 10.58 38.16 10.69 10.30 8.64 8.52
antimatter 2835 342 $1,101.96 45.08 3.13 10.80 4.87 3.51 1.76 0.66
bstanescu 2888 360 $1,407.94 48.17 4.58 15.25 6.27 4.93 2.79 1.26
dgarthur 2833 462 $1,381.46 32.25 3.73 14.62 6.58 4.19 2.41 1.45
haha 2803 419 $1,099.18 32.13 2.87 10.37 4.80 3.11 1.65 0.80
gepa 2630 447 $781.40 21.18 1.14 5.33 3.06 1.42 0.60 0.25
jms137 2764 342 $816.67 28.83 1.53 5.84 2.94 1.86 0.79 0.25
grotmol 2624 678 $1,408.09 25.07 2.98 16.05 9.05 3.31 1.92 1.77
AdrianKuegel 2595 217 $566.57 17.24 0.10 0.51 0.33 0.15 0.03 0.00
monsoon 2786 438 $1,122.25 30.03 2.73 10.99 5.28 3.21 1.66 0.84
doeth 2402 326 $560.08 6.28 0.04 0.34 0.25 0.08 0.01 0.00
ambrose 2503 447 $654.94 14.69 0.48 2.83 1.83 0.68 0.23 0.08
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
cnettel 2411 564 $719.87 13.72 0.62 4.50 3.04 0.93 0.35 0.17
tmyklebu 2369 341 $565.00 8.87 0.05 0.53 0.40 0.10 0.02 0.00
RalphFurmaniak 2433 472 $661.15 16.73 0.45 3.17 2.20 0.67 0.22 0.08
ssancho2 2410 375 $576.31 8.35 0.10 0.86 0.62 0.19 0.04 0.01
pparys 2608 611 $1,085.00 21.19 2.06 10.73 6.09 2.43 1.27 0.94
hauser 2390 463 $609.93 10.65 0.24 1.80 1.27 0.38 0.11 0.03
dvickrey 2209 384 $556.34 3.43 0.01 0.24 0.20 0.04 0.01 0.00
qsort 2164 499 $579.87 7.75 0.08 1.07 0.87 0.16 0.04 0.01